Missing the Spider-Web for its threads... Or not?

Look at things in isolation too much, and you are only isolating yourself

Oct 06, 2023

Last broadcast’s Coherence Metric score was 2.7559 ,placing it #7 overall! To understand what the Coherence Metric score is, check it out here :)

Hello everyone, today’s broadcast is about the idiom ‘missing the forest for the trees’, where one can fixate on a detail or particular aspect of something, but miss the grand scheme or the bigger picture. This idiom can apply to many aspects of life, as sometimes you may see someone do something that appears random, or unexplainable. Maybe you are reading a development in the news which appears to be the complete opposite of what has been the narrative for the last weeks.

The idea is that often, there are interconnected reasons for many seemingly unrelated events, and one only needs to zoom out to see the bigger picture. Of course, at what point do things go too far, and you begin to be just a conspiracist, connecting things which are actually unrelated? Lets take a look.

The Beginning

Let’s take a brief look at the journey at Sweden’s and Finland’s ongoing path to NATO membership:

→ 24th Feb 2022: Following its annexation of the Crimea, Russia invades further into Ukraine.

Following this invasion, this mobilised many European countries to re-evaluate their militaries and security arrangements, strengthening and reaffirming ties between themselves and other nations. Among them, Finland and Sweden were doing likewise, but were looking to go a step further- to begin to apply for full NATO membership.

→18th May 2022: Finland and Sweden submit their applications for NATO

However, it wasn’t all smooth sailing. For these countries to be accepted, each existing NATO member has to approve them, and have VETO powers if they object to any incoming country. Turkey proved to be particularly against Sweden coming into NATO, with the claim that Sweden has been harbouring militants from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been designated as a terrorist group in Turkey and Sweden, as well as most of the West. Additionally, there were other events which angered Turkey:

→21st January 2023: Protests in Sweden, which included deliberately provocative acts such as Qur’an burning and a hanged Erdogan effigy

These protests only further antagonised Turkey, and served to create a heavy emotional response whenever Sweden’s acceptance into NATO was brought up, and was another example of how Sweden ‘fails to crack down’ on terrorism and hate crime. Back and forths ensued, with Sweden implementing anti-terrorism laws and acquiescing to other demands, but Turkey continued to uphold its veto. The story was predicted by some to drag on for months and even years, so much so that some believed that Finland should try distance itself and strive to join NATO separately, rather than with Sweden as initially intended.

However, a couple of months later, things appeared to have drastically changed:

→ 29th June 2023: Turkey lifts it's veto over Sweden's and Finland's big to join NATO

What initially led to the breakthrough was a promise by Sweden and Finland to further work on removing support for the Kurdish militant groups and lifting bans on arms sales to Turkey. But is that all? there are two more important dates which could shed light on this sudden change of heart by Turkey:

Sweetening the Deal

→ 11th July 2023: The USA has agreed to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Turkey

The timing for this is conspicuous, as previously the USA has refused this transfer, as Turkey had ordered defence systems from Russia, and it was something that Turkey had been lobbying for, for months. Is the fact that this transfer was approved a mere couple of days after the veto vote was lifted just a pure coincidence?

A Headache Removed

→28th May 2023: Erdogan has won the presidential election to be re-elected for his third term

This may be the crux of the matter. Elections are sometimes the key to understanding the behaviour of many politicians, and it is likely it played a large impact here too. Elections contain the threat of simply removing their most prized thing- power. Throughout 2022, Erdogan’s, lets call it Questionable, macro-economic policy had led to spiking inflation: and to put it simply:

inflation → higher prices → unhappier people → unhappier voters

This recipe is not ideal for an incumbent in an election, so one plausible explanation for Turkey’s insistence to veto Sweden and Finland was to create a distraction from the economic troubles, and create the impression that Erdogan was a tough, skilled statesman. The provocative actions of Swedish protests would have only helped, ensuring that this story was emotionally driven, and was given precedence over the economic conditions in the country.

However, after the elections were over and Erdogan had won, one could assume that it was not as worth it to remain as adamant about keeping up the veto, and after securing further concessions (and maybe the F-16 transfer?), Turkey was happy to lift its veto. These events, seemingly isolated, can be seen as a complicated, interconnected dynamic web of politics, but if they truly had direct impact on one another, we may never know.

Trees or Forest?

This may sound a little conspiratorial, but I believe that it’s not totally misguided to see links between many events, which at first glance appear unrelated, to be casually related in some way, especially in similar examples such as the one above. What is certain is that before elections many politicians begin to bring up issues, problems or engage in other forms of grandstanding in order to appeal to voters:

→ With elections coming up in Poland, it was inevitable that the topic of reparations from Germany would be brought up: The incumbent Law and Justice Party (or PiS) has brought up the topic again these past months, with elections looming. Whether they are right or wrong is not relevant here, but its noticeable that these efforts only usually are given light or energy when votes are about to be tallied. And it can be considered quite an effective tactic, as opposing the idea of reparations does not sound like a good campaign strategy, but neither does agreeing with the opposing party.

Ulterior Motives

Another way that this can be seen is in methods of distraction or subversion: maybe someone wants to draw your attention to a specific tree or thread, only for you to miss the forest or walk face-first into a larger spiderweb (trust me, not a fun experience). Lets see an example of a company and a politician which may have attempted to do this. Bear in mind, I may be absolutely wrong- but it is something that definitely gets one thinking.

The New Meta

In October of 2021, Facebook announced at its annual Connect conference that Facebook would change its name to Meta, with the company’s new focus being on bringing the metaverse to 'life', growing past its initial aims of being just a social media company. The company would heavily focus on the metaverse, on augmented and virtual reality, trying to bring the next generation of technology into life.

However, at the same time, Facebook was under immense pressure. Whistleblower Frances Haugen leaked documents which revealed that the company was aware of the many detrimental and harmful effects its social media products were having, and the company did little to concretely address them:

→ Facebook was aware of the negative impact of Instagram on teenagers, with one in five teenagers saying that Instagram makes them feel worse about themselves, with more frequent suicidal thoughts after use.

→ For years starting in 2017, Facebook weighted emoji reactions 5 times as much as 'likes', with the reactions ranging from “love,” “haha,” “wow,” “sad” and “angry.” This ensured that more emotionally charged content would appear on people’s feed- some good, like the funny or lovable items, some bad- any controversial or baiting posts were sure to be over-exposed. This decision certainly contributed to the spread of hateful messages and disinformation across Facebook, giving the worst members of society a stronger microphone.

→ Facebook’s almost utter failure to moderate content pretty much anywhere apart from the US lead to further proliferation of hate speech worldwide, creating hateful echo chambers. Facebook has been linked to the Rohingya genocide in Myanmar, as Facebook failed to stem the flood of inflammatory, race baiting posts. Actors linked to the Myanmar military and radical Buddhist nationalist groups flooded the platform with anti-Muslim content, posting disinformation claiming there was going to be an impending Muslim takeover, and portraying the Rohingya as “invaders”.

You can check out what else the Facebook papers revealed here. What is undeniable is that something like this is probably what PR people have nightmares about. Not only have documents leaked detailing how a company prioritised profit over preventing genocides, harming teenagers and stemming lies and inflammatory rhetoric, but these documents are always going to be named after the very same company?

Maybe changing the name of the company, even though Facebook was still one of the most valuable brands in the world, didn’t seem too bad. Sure, you can explain the name change with a shift in focus of the company, but trying to distance oneself from such scandals isn’t too bad right? Now, it’s impossible to say what was the true motivation for the name change, but I find it hard to believe running from these scandals didn’t at least play a small part in the decision.

Absurdity in a Suit

I’m sure to most, Boris Johnson does not need much of an introduction. Once a Prime Minister of the UK, he was described by some as “Britain Trump”. One thing for sure, is that whenever he talked, something interesting was to be said. My personal favourite is his description of the London Assembly:

“Great, Supine, Protoplasmic invertebrate jellies”
-A politician about another group of politicians

Another famous video that deserves a deeper dives is a part of an interview, where Boris is asked what he does to ‘relax’:

Now, maybe Boris Johnson does like to roll up his sleeves and paint busses on empty wine crates, and more power to him. But there are many who believe that this was just a ploy to distract the population, and muddy the search engine results of sites such as Google. This is because the previous association of Boris Johnson and busses was the infamous ‘Brexit Bus’.

In the weeks leading up to the Brexit vote, The ‘Leave’ side had a a campaign of having a Red bus with a statement of how much money the UK was sending to the EU, instead of the NHS, its health service. The figure was, at very best, a gross exaggeration devoid of any context or additional information, but that’s not important.

What mattered is that it worked: the Brexit Bus was deemed to have a significant impact, and the ‘Leave’ side won. However, there was significant pushback due to the misleading nature of the lie printed on the bus.

Circling Back

So does Boris Johnson really like painting busses on boxes in his spare time? Or was this just a tactic to muddy the association between himself and the word ‘bus’? One can add that some claim he has done something like this before, as one he caused a stir by calling himself a "model of restraint". Coincidentally, there were existing allegations circulating about an affair with a former model. The use of the word ‘model’ may truly be just a coincidence, but it could also be a clever ploy of distraction.

Final Thoughts

Some of you may think that some of these examples are genuine examples of the interconnectedness of actions, while someone of you think i may be ‘finding a hole in a whole’ to paraphrase a Polish saying. But in truth, there is little that separates a detective or journalist or astute observer from a conspiracist. Are you Sherlock Holmes or just wearing a tinfoil hat? The line is often blurred, sometimes only defined by public perception.

Just one more example: remember when Alex Jones’ famous rant about how government is feeding chemicals into the water that “turn the friggin frogs gay?” A widely used pesticide, Atrazine, has been found to castrate 75% of male frogs and turn 10% into females . This obviously does not validate the horrible thing Alex Jones has said, but honestly, I’m not sure what to make of this. Maybe one of you have a clearer picture or idea, feel free to voice your opinions in the comments.

One thing for sure is that with enough imagination, one can make any theory work. But look at things in isolation too much, and you are only isolating yourself.

Make sure to give this broadcast a coherence score!

That’s all from me for now, but stay tuned for future broadcasts,

This has been Kunga’s Written Radio,